Reviewing the calls: Lakers-Kings Game 6by Roland Beech, Founder 82games.comThere's been a lot of talk about this next game... maybe way too much talk.A couple of years back I did an extensive breakdown of the referee calls in Mavs-Heat game five of the NBA Finals. Along with being a popular article, it led to frequent emails requesting I review other specific games in a similar fashion, notably the "infamous" game six of the 2001-2002 playoffs between the Lakers and the Kings. Now though the stakes are different -- the NBA's had to deal with a full blown ref scandal, and the original bad seed Tim Donaghy isn't done yet. Not content with pleading guilty to betting on games he officiated, he recently alleged that the NBA had two "company men" work the Lakers-Kings game and make calls that would help the Lakers win and set up a Game 7. Lakers-Kings game six refs
1) Basketball is a very difficult game to officiate - ten players moving simulataneously with all kinds of incidental contact along the way, a variety of obscure and seldom enforced rules, and it's all played out from end to end at blazing fast speed. - you are always going to have a certain amount of controversy regarding the officiating since there are so many plays which are far from clear-cut. This isn't tennis, with a simple in/out decision. - reasonable individuals can agree to disagree on the appropriate ruling on a play, even after seeing it in slow motion replay multiple times! It's clear then that referees should be extended a margin of error and an occasional missed call is no grounds for assuming malfeasance. 2) the conclusions of my review can easily be challenged - my qualifications are suspect: I've never been a basketball ref at any level. I have however watched thousands of NBA games, large parts of them in slow motion, and have a decent sense of the 'standards' applied to the game today. - For this game I'm working from pretty grainy videotape transferred to DVD, which doesn't always lend clarity to the pulled back TV angles commonly used. Most egregious to this is that at times it was hard to distinguish between two of the refs (Delaney and Bernhardt) 3) backdrop to game six - the Kings were ahead three games to two in the series after a thrilling game five win - in game five the Lakers felt the calls were against them, highlighted by Shaq only attempting one free throw in the game (and fouling out) while the Kings took ten more free throws as a team. This may have influenced the buildup to game six with a sense that Shaq would be accorded 'better treatment.' 4) what this is not - this is not intended as a referendum on NBA rules in general (ie whether games should be called tighter, etc) - it is not a defense/attack on specific players and their games, eg some people argue Shaq has got away with commmitting near constant offensive fouls throughout his career, but I was only reviewing the game under the guise of the typical standards of officiating - I had no agenda for the data to convey evidence one way or another 5) my approach to Ref grading I reviewed the complete game, noting:
Please Note: some calls I assigned as 'joint' to two refs, and in those cases the plays are "double counted" in the individual ref totals, but NOT in the ALL totals. Then a few non calls were charged only to the totals and not to one or two of the refs. (Intentional fouls are ignored.)
I should offer the disclaimer that I was trying hard to be objective on rating the calls, and did use the opinions of the supposedly unbiased commentators in my evaluation. I should also state there may be times when I mistakenly attributed a call to Delaney that should have been Bernhardt, and vice versa, since I had difficulty telling them apart on occasion. Ultimately, by my standards, 73% of the officials' decisions on calls and non-calls were either 'yes' or 'probably' the right call, and only nine plays (8% of all calls) were either 'dubious' or 'very dubious'. Now some calls to me are just flat out "maybe" calls by their nature regardless of who the ref is where it's basically a "can go either way" situation. Thus this number is not a focal point for me as to the quality of officiating. The total calls (and non-calls) were actually very even between the two teams, but the Lakers did benefit in my view in having an edge on the dubious calls of 7-2 in their favor. Five calls though across a full game does not immediately suggest any foul play at work. As for the specific officials, with again the caveat that I can't speak with total authority to the Delaney/Bernhardt splits being exact, no ref showed a particular overall bias in total calls (compared to say Salvatore's 25-11 in favor of Miami split in the prior exercise of this kind).
Of course, not all calls count for the same value (a change in possession call counts for much more than a personal foul leading to a sideout), so to make it more insightful it's worth attempting to calculate the potential points value of these calls.
So in viewing the plays I adjusted the points value by what I considered the "leftover value" of the possession if it hadn't happened, using for ease of calculation 1 point as the basic expectation of a possession. So, a travel call costs a team one point since they score 0 on the possession with an expectation of one if the call hadn't happened. On the other hand a personal foul that awards two free throws, both made, is only a +1 value despite the team scoring two points: if the foul doesn't happen we still expect on average a point from the possession. Anyway, that's a long winded way of saying there's some pretty debatable assumptions being made here. The final step is to multiply the presumed +/- points for a call by the "wrong call" chance, which I allocated as follows: 0% - 'yes' grade (has a 0% chance of being an incorrect call) 25% - 'probably' 50% - 'maybe' 75% - 'dubious' 85% - 'very dubious' If the call was deemed a "yes" then the points adjustments are all considered to be fairly earned. On the other hand if you earn two free throws on a "maybe" call, the 50/50 category, then half the points for the call can be termed "bonus officiating points" for the team.
To explain the 'negative bonus points' concept a touch more -- if for instance a player took a shot and was seemingly fouled but there was no call, that would be negative points on the call for his team since they lost free throws and 'expected value' resulting from them. As such you can see this game the calls actually may have hurt the offense and helped the defense overall. So when I do this somewhat involved "quantification" of the officiating impact to generate team net 'bonus points' and add it all up, it looks like this: +4.4 LAL - Bavetta +1.9 LAL - Bernhardt +0.2 SAC - Delaney +0.1 SAC - Joint Calls ---------------------- +6.0 Lakers (total) Now you can argue certainly that the types of calls an official is involved with in a given game is to some extent a function of what 'turf' on the court they are covering, and undoubtedly even if you had completely correct officials you could still see some odd discrepancies in free throws awarded and 'points generated/lost'. At the end though, my scoring of the calls amounts to seeing the Lakers getting a net bonus of 6 points in the game, which some might take as a sign that the refs had a big role in determining the outcome of a contest with a four point final margin. Ah, but of course, if you change one call, the events that had ensued would be different. Perhaps if Divac had got the call and resulting free throws in the first quarter, the Kings would have wound up losing by even more. So we can never be sure, excepting perhaps the very last plays of a game, to what extent the calls mattered.
Do I think there was some nefarious scheme on the part of the refs to control the outcome? No. Calls by Quarter
Still let's remember the accusation being made here -- not that there were some questionable calls that were imbalanced in the favor of one team (a frequent occurrence everyone can probably admit in basketball), but that two 'company men' refs conspired to ensure the Lakers won the game. I haven't seen any reference to who specifically the 'company men' were in Donaghy's mind, but given my own stats it would be hard to make the case that Delaney was rigging it for the Lakers since his debatable calls were more often in favor of the Kings. So let's make the assumption that Bavetta and Bernhardt are the ones under scrutiny and yes they both had some calls that went for the Lakers. But here's the thing, if you look at the last five minutes of the game during which it was always in a "clutch" state by the 82games standard filter (neither team ahead by more than five points) the calls don't add up to a pattern of bias to my mind: 4th Quarter Calls/Non-Calls in last five minutes
Bernhardt made no foul call on Christie's block of Kobe with the game tied at 3:56, gave Bibby a bailout call with the shot clock winding down at 2:34 with the game tied, and didn't call Webber for a foul on Shaq's basket at 0:52 which could have fouled out C-Webb and given the Lakers a look at a four point lead. Delaney wasn't very active in the waning minutes, with one no call where Bibby looked for a foul at the 0:43 mark. The other notable non-call which I rated an "all refs" situation was on the inbounds at 0:12 where Kobe knocked Bibby to the floor with an elbow to the face, but Bibby was also grabbing Kobe at the time it happened so both were really guilty of infractions to some extent. Still an offensive foul on Kobe there could have changed the outcome! As a whole, these plays suggest to me the refs were calling the game honestly, if perhaps not well. Now Bernhardt did have the arguable turning point call of the game as it turns out at the 3:06 mark when Webber moved into the paint and made a basket only to have the shot wiped out with an offensive foul call. At first I was in agreement with Bill Walton that this was a "terrible call" but having watched the play over ten times in slow motion I changed it from 'dubious' to 'maybe' in my grading since it's one of those plays where I believe a case could be made for a defensive foul, an offensive foul, or even a dual fault let them play no call. If pressed I'd still rate it a Horry foul which would have given a basket and the and one shot to Webber and the Kings a possible four or five point lead. Yet there is a fair amount of left arm push off from Webber and Bernhardt was right on top of the play with a good angle. This gets to the heart of the matter to me: despite the NBA's official claim that 95% of calls are correct over a season, there are just too many plays that are far from being clear cut wrong/right and many that fall into a gray area where even watching a play many times in slow motion you can make a case for different verdicts. The block/charge/no call situation is also about the worst of these in that it's such a snap judgement with significant effect.
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月曜日, 6月 09, 2014
Lakers Kings Game 6 2002 NBA Playoffs Officiating breakdown -- from 82games.com
Lakers Kings Game 6 2002 NBA Playoffs Officiating breakdown -- from 82games.com
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